dc.contributor.author | Pasanen, Tiia‐Maria | |
dc.contributor.author | Voutilainen, Miikka | |
dc.contributor.author | Helske, Jouni | |
dc.contributor.author | Högmander, Harri | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2022-06-29T09:04:57Z | |
dc.date.available | 2022-06-29T09:04:57Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2022 | |
dc.identifier.citation | Pasanen, T., Voutilainen, M., Helske, J., & Högmander, H. (2022). A Bayesian spatio‐temporal analysis of markets during the Finnish 1860s famine. <i>Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics</i>, <i>71</i>(5), 1282-1302. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12577" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12577</a> | |
dc.identifier.other | CONVID_147297085 | |
dc.identifier.uri | https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/82081 | |
dc.description.abstract | We develop a Bayesian spatio-temporal model to study pre-industrial grain market integration during the Finnish famine of the 1860s. Our model takes into account several problematic features often present when analysing multiple spatially interdependent time series. For example, compared with the error correction methodology commonly applied in econometrics, our approach allows simultaneous modelling of multiple interdependent time series avoiding cumbersome statistical testing needed to predetermine the market leader as a point of reference. Furthermore, introducing a flexible spatio-temporal structure enables analysing detailed regional and temporal dynamics of the market mechanisms. Applying the proposed method, we detected spatially asymmetric ‘price ripples’ that spread out from the shock origin. We corroborated the existing literature on the speedier adjustment to emerging price differentials during the famine, but we observed this principally in urban markets. This hastened return to long-run equilibrium means faster and longer travel of price shocks, implying prolonged out-of-equilibrium dynamics, proliferated influence of market shocks, and, importantly, a wider spread of famine conditions. | en |
dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | |
dc.language.iso | eng | |
dc.publisher | Wiley-Blackwell | |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics | |
dc.rights | CC BY 4.0 | |
dc.subject.other | Bayesian statistics | |
dc.subject.other | error correction model | |
dc.subject.other | Finnish famine | |
dc.subject.other | marketintegration | |
dc.subject.other | spatio-temporal model | |
dc.title | A Bayesian spatio‐temporal analysis of markets during the Finnish 1860s famine | |
dc.type | article | |
dc.identifier.urn | URN:NBN:fi:jyu-202206293682 | |
dc.contributor.laitos | Matematiikan ja tilastotieteen laitos | fi |
dc.contributor.laitos | Historian ja etnologian laitos | fi |
dc.contributor.laitos | Department of Mathematics and Statistics | en |
dc.contributor.laitos | Department of History and Ethnology | en |
dc.contributor.oppiaine | Resurssiviisausyhteisö | fi |
dc.contributor.oppiaine | Tilastotiede | fi |
dc.contributor.oppiaine | School of Resource Wisdom | en |
dc.contributor.oppiaine | Statistics | en |
dc.type.uri | http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle | |
dc.type.coar | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1 | |
dc.description.reviewstatus | peerReviewed | |
dc.format.pagerange | 1282-1302 | |
dc.relation.issn | 0035-9254 | |
dc.relation.numberinseries | 5 | |
dc.relation.volume | 71 | |
dc.type.version | publishedVersion | |
dc.rights.copyright | © 2022 the Authors | |
dc.rights.accesslevel | openAccess | fi |
dc.relation.grantnumber | 308975 | |
dc.relation.grantnumber | 311877 | |
dc.relation.grantnumber | 331817 | |
dc.subject.yso | bayesilainen menetelmä | |
dc.subject.yso | aikasarja-analyysi | |
dc.subject.yso | hintakehitys | |
dc.subject.yso | ekonometriset mallit | |
dc.subject.yso | taloushistoria | |
dc.subject.yso | viljakauppa | |
dc.subject.yso | suuret nälkävuodet (1866–1868) | |
dc.subject.yso | markkinat (taloustiede) | |
dc.subject.yso | aikasarjat | |
dc.format.content | fulltext | |
jyx.subject.uri | http://www.yso.fi/onto/yso/p17803 | |
jyx.subject.uri | http://www.yso.fi/onto/yso/p22747 | |
jyx.subject.uri | http://www.yso.fi/onto/yso/p22236 | |
jyx.subject.uri | http://www.yso.fi/onto/yso/p25538 | |
jyx.subject.uri | http://www.yso.fi/onto/yso/p17789 | |
jyx.subject.uri | http://www.yso.fi/onto/yso/p26732 | |
jyx.subject.uri | http://www.yso.fi/onto/yso/p18028 | |
jyx.subject.uri | http://www.yso.fi/onto/yso/p1865 | |
jyx.subject.uri | http://www.yso.fi/onto/yso/p12290 | |
dc.rights.url | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | |
dc.relation.doi | 10.1111/rssc.12577 | |
dc.relation.funder | Research Council of Finland | en |
dc.relation.funder | Research Council of Finland | en |
dc.relation.funder | Research Council of Finland | en |
dc.relation.funder | Suomen Akatemia | fi |
dc.relation.funder | Suomen Akatemia | fi |
dc.relation.funder | Suomen Akatemia | fi |
jyx.fundingprogram | Academy Project, AoF | en |
jyx.fundingprogram | Research profiles, AoF | en |
jyx.fundingprogram | Academy Project, AoF | en |
jyx.fundingprogram | Akatemiahanke, SA | fi |
jyx.fundingprogram | Profilointi, SA | fi |
jyx.fundingprogram | Akatemiahanke, SA | fi |
jyx.fundinginformation | Tiia-Maria Pasanen was supported by the Finnish Cultural Foundation. Jouni Helske was supported by the Academy of Finland grants 331817 and 311877. Miikka Voutilainen was supported by the Academy of Finland grant 308975. | |
dc.type.okm | A1 | |