A Bayesian spatio‐temporal analysis of markets during the Finnish 1860s famine
Pasanen, T., Voutilainen, M., Helske, J., & Högmander, H. (2022). A Bayesian spatio‐temporal analysis of markets during the Finnish 1860s famine. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics, 71(5), 1282-1302. https://doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12577
Date
2022Copyright
© 2022 the Authors
We develop a Bayesian spatio-temporal model to study pre-industrial grain market integration during the Finnish famine of the 1860s. Our model takes into account several problematic features often present when analysing multiple spatially interdependent time series. For example, compared with the error correction methodology commonly applied in econometrics, our approach allows simultaneous modelling of multiple interdependent time series avoiding cumbersome statistical testing needed to predetermine the market leader as a point of reference. Furthermore, introducing a flexible spatio-temporal structure enables analysing detailed regional and temporal dynamics of the market mechanisms. Applying the proposed method, we detected spatially asymmetric ‘price ripples’ that spread out from the shock origin. We corroborated the existing literature on the speedier adjustment to emerging price differentials during the famine, but we observed this principally in urban markets. This hastened return to long-run equilibrium means faster and longer travel of price shocks, implying prolonged out-of-equilibrium dynamics, proliferated influence of market shocks, and, importantly, a wider spread of famine conditions.
...
Publisher
Wiley-BlackwellISSN Search the Publication Forum
0035-9254Keywords
Publication in research information system
https://converis.jyu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/147297085
Metadata
Show full item recordCollections
Related funder(s)
Research Council of FinlandFunding program(s)
Academy Project, AoF; Research profiles, AoFAdditional information about funding
Tiia-Maria Pasanen was supported by the Finnish Cultural Foundation. Jouni Helske was supported by the Academy of Finland grants 331817 and 311877. Miikka Voutilainen was supported by the Academy of Finland grant 308975.License
Related items
Showing items with similar title or keywords.
-
TBSSvis : Visual analytics for Temporal Blind Source Separation
Piccolotto, Nikolaus; Bögl, Markus; Gschwandtner, Theresia; Muehlmann, Christoph; Nordhausen, Klaus; Filzmoser, Peter; Miksch, Silvia (Zhejiang University Press; Elsevier, 2022)Temporal Blind Source Separation (TBSS) is used to obtain the true underlying processes from noisy temporal multivariate data, such as electrocardiograms. TBSS has similarities to Principal Component Analysis (PCA) as it ... -
Myyräkuumeen ja myyrärunsauden välisen suhteen mallintaminen tila-avaruusmalleilla
Leppänen, Olli (2016)Tutkielma käsittelee myyräkuumeen mallintamista tila-avaruusmalleilla. Tutkin myyrärunsauksien ja myyräkuumetapausten välistä riippuvuutta ja selvitän, voidaanko myyrärunsauksilla ennustaa tulevia myyräkuumetapausten ... -
Aikasarjamallit apuna Suomen talouden seurannassa
Juvonen, Petteri; Anttonen, Jetro; Fornaro, Paolo; Nissilä, Wilma; Nyberg, Henri; Pönkä, Harri (Kansantaloudellinen yhdistys, 2019)Viimeisten vuosikymmenien aikana kansainvälisessä ekonometrisessa tutkimuskirjallisuudessa on esitetty useita makrotaloudellista tilaa kuvaavien muuttujien informaatiota yhdistäviä lyhyen aikavälin mallinnus- ja ... -
Autoregressiivisten prosessien ennustevälien peittotodennäköisyyksien parantaminen
Helske, Jouni (2010) -
Disentangling conditional effects of multiple regime shifts on Atlantic cod productivity
Perälä, Tommi; Olsen, Esben M.; Hutchings, Jeffrey A. (Public Library of Science, 2020)Regime shifts are increasingly prevalent in the ecological literature. However, definitions vary and detection methods are still developing. Here, we employ a novel statistical algorithm based on the Bayesian online ...