A Bayesian Reconstruction of a Historical Population in Finland, 1647–1850
Voutilainen, M., Helske, J., & Högmander, H. (2020). A Bayesian Reconstruction of a Historical Population in Finland, 1647–1850. Demography, 57(3), 1171-1192. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-020-00889-1
© The Authors, 2020
This article provides a novel method for estimating historical population development. We review the previous literature on historical population time-series estimates and propose a general outline to address the well-known methodological problems. We use a Bayesian hierarchical time-series model that allows us to integrate the parish-level data set and prior population information in a coherent manner. The procedure provides us with model-based posterior intervals for the final population estimates. We demonstrate its applicability by estimating the long-term development of Finland’s population from 1647 onward and simultaneously place the country among the very few to have an annual population series of such length available.
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Related funder(s)Academy of Finland; OP Group Research Foundation
Funding program(s)Research costs of Academy Research Fellow, AoF; Research profiles, AoF; Academy Project, AoF; Foundation
Additional information about fundingOpen access funding provided by University of Jyväskylä (JYU). Miikka Voutilainen acknowledges financial support of OP Group Research Foundation grants 201600139, 20170130, and 20180071; Academy of Finland grant 308975; and research visit to UC Davis in 2018. Jouni Helske was supported by the Academy of Finland research grants 284513 and 312605 and 311877.
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