A Bayesian Reconstruction of a Historical Population in Finland, 1647–1850
Voutilainen, M., Helske, J., & Högmander, H. (2020). A Bayesian Reconstruction of a Historical Population in Finland, 1647–1850. Demography, 57(3), 1171-1192. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-020-00889-1
© The Authors, 2020
This article provides a novel method for estimating historical population development. We review the previous literature on historical population time-series estimates and propose a general outline to address the well-known methodological problems. We use a Bayesian hierarchical time-series model that allows us to integrate the parish-level data set and prior population information in a coherent manner. The procedure provides us with model-based posterior intervals for the final population estimates. We demonstrate its applicability by estimating the long-term development of Finland’s population from 1647 onward and simultaneously place the country among the very few to have an annual population series of such length available.
Publication in research information system
MetadataShow full item record
Related funder(s)Academy of Finland; OP Group Research Foundation
Funding program(s)Research costs of Academy Research Fellow, AoF; Research profiles, AoF; Academy Project, AoF; Foundation
Additional information about fundingOpen access funding provided by University of Jyväskylä (JYU). Miikka Voutilainen acknowledges financial support of OP Group Research Foundation grants 201600139, 20170130, and 20180071; Academy of Finland grant 308975; and research visit to UC Davis in 2018. Jouni Helske was supported by the Academy of Finland research grants 284513 and 312605 and 311877.
Showing items with similar title or keywords.
Domestic dexterity and cultural policy : the idea of cottage industry and historical experience in Finland from the great famine to the reconstruction period Kraatari, Eliza (University of Jyväskylä, 2016)The concept of cottage industry (kotiteollisuus) referred especially to rural craft practices. For the promotion of cottage industries, a state administrative organ and a network of cottage industry associations and ...
Karppinen, Santeri (2018)Lasten akuutin lymfoblastileukemian ylläpitovaiheen hoidossa tehtävät lääkeannostuspäätökset pohjataan nykyisin potilaan veren valkosolupitoisuuteen, joka on hoidon tehokkuudesta kertova tekijä. Potilaalle sopiva lääkeannostus ...
Vihola, Matti; Helske, Jouni; Franks, Jordan (Wiley-Blackwell, 2020)We consider importance sampling (IS) type weighted estimators based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) targeting an approximate marginal of the target distribution. In the context of Bayesian latent variable models, the ...
Helske, Jouni; Tikka, Santtu; Karvanen, Juha (Wiley-Blackwell, 2021)We consider the problem of estimating causal effects of interventions from observational data when well-known back-door and front-door adjustments are not applicable. We show that when an identifiable causal effect is ...
Pietiläinen, Samuli (2009)Abstract This paper estimates an investment equation for private investment using Bayesian estimation techniques. In the paper we derive the optimal capital accumulation behavior in the model economy from the households’ ...