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dc.contributor.authorVoutilainen, Miikka
dc.contributor.authorHelske, Jouni
dc.contributor.authorHögmander, Harri
dc.date.accessioned2020-06-17T11:10:43Z
dc.date.available2020-06-17T11:10:43Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.identifier.citationVoutilainen, M., Helske, J., & Högmander, H. (2020). A Bayesian Reconstruction of a Historical Population in Finland, 1647–1850. <i>Demography</i>, <i>57</i>(3), 1171-1192. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-020-00889-1" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-020-00889-1</a>
dc.identifier.otherCONVID_35962982
dc.identifier.urihttps://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/70034
dc.description.abstractThis article provides a novel method for estimating historical population development. We review the previous literature on historical population time-series estimates and propose a general outline to address the well-known methodological problems. We use a Bayesian hierarchical time-series model that allows us to integrate the parish-level data set and prior population information in a coherent manner. The procedure provides us with model-based posterior intervals for the final population estimates. We demonstrate its applicability by estimating the long-term development of Finland’s population from 1647 onward and simultaneously place the country among the very few to have an annual population series of such length available.en
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.languageeng
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherSpringer
dc.relation.ispartofseriesDemography
dc.rightsCC BY 4.0
dc.subject.otherpopulation history
dc.subject.otherpopulation growth
dc.subject.otherearly modern era
dc.subject.otherBayesian estimation
dc.titleA Bayesian Reconstruction of a Historical Population in Finland, 1647–1850
dc.typearticle
dc.identifier.urnURN:NBN:fi:jyu-202006174250
dc.contributor.laitosMatematiikan ja tilastotieteen laitosfi
dc.contributor.laitosHistorian ja etnologian laitosfi
dc.contributor.laitosDepartment of Mathematics and Statisticsen
dc.contributor.laitosDepartment of History and Ethnologyen
dc.contributor.oppiaineTilastotiedefi
dc.contributor.oppiaineStatisticsen
dc.type.urihttp://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle
dc.description.reviewstatuspeerReviewed
dc.format.pagerange1171-1192
dc.relation.issn0070-3370
dc.relation.numberinseries3
dc.relation.volume57
dc.type.versionpublishedVersion
dc.rights.copyright© The Authors, 2020
dc.rights.accesslevelopenAccessfi
dc.relation.grantnumber312605
dc.relation.grantnumber311877
dc.relation.grantnumber308975
dc.relation.grantnumber284513
dc.relation.grantnumber201600139, 20170130
dc.subject.ysouuden ajan alku
dc.subject.ysobayesilainen menetelmä
dc.subject.ysoestimointi
dc.subject.ysoväestöhistoria
dc.subject.ysoväestönmuutokset
dc.subject.ysoaikasarjat
dc.format.contentfulltext
jyx.subject.urihttp://www.yso.fi/onto/yso/p25293
jyx.subject.urihttp://www.yso.fi/onto/yso/p17803
jyx.subject.urihttp://www.yso.fi/onto/yso/p11349
jyx.subject.urihttp://www.yso.fi/onto/yso/p5344
jyx.subject.urihttp://www.yso.fi/onto/yso/p5004
jyx.subject.urihttp://www.yso.fi/onto/yso/p12290
dc.rights.urlhttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.relation.doi10.1007/s13524-020-00889-1
dc.relation.funderSuomen Akatemiafi
dc.relation.funderSuomen Akatemiafi
dc.relation.funderSuomen Akatemiafi
dc.relation.funderSuomen Akatemiafi
dc.relation.funderOP-Pohjola-ryhmän tutkimussäätiöfi
dc.relation.funderAcademy of Finlanden
dc.relation.funderAcademy of Finlanden
dc.relation.funderAcademy of Finlanden
dc.relation.funderAcademy of Finlanden
dc.relation.funderOP Group Research Foundationen
jyx.fundingprogramAkatemiatutkijan tutkimuskulut, SAfi
jyx.fundingprogramProfilointi, SAfi
jyx.fundingprogramAkatemiahanke, SAfi
jyx.fundingprogramAkatemiatutkijan tutkimuskulut, SAfi
jyx.fundingprogramSäätiöfi
jyx.fundingprogramResearch costs of Academy Research Fellow, AoFen
jyx.fundingprogramResearch profiles, AoFen
jyx.fundingprogramAcademy Project, AoFen
jyx.fundingprogramResearch costs of Academy Research Fellow, AoFen
jyx.fundingprogramFoundationen
jyx.fundinginformationOpen access funding provided by University of Jyväskylä (JYU). Miikka Voutilainen acknowledges financial support of OP Group Research Foundation grants 201600139, 20170130, and 20180071; Academy of Finland grant 308975; and research visit to UC Davis in 2018. Jouni Helske was supported by the Academy of Finland research grants 284513 and 312605 and 311877.


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