Data-Based Forest Management with Uncertainties and Multiple Objectives

Abstract

In this paper, we present an approach of employing multiobjective optimization to support decision making in forest management planning. The planning is based on data representing so-called stands, each consisting of homogeneous parts of the forest, and simulations of how the trees grow in the stands under different treatment options. Forest planning concerns future decisions to be made that include uncertainty. We employ as objective functions both the expected values of incomes and biodiversity as well as the value at risk for both of these objectives. In addition, we minimize the risk level for both the income value and the biodiversity value. There is a tradeoff between the expected value and the value at risk, as well as between the value at risk of the two objectives of interest and, thus, decision support is needed to find the best balance between the conflicting objectives. We employ an interactive method where a decision maker iteratively provides preference information to find the most preferred management plan and at the same time learns about the interdependencies of the objectives.