Verifying the predicted risk of extinction based on ecological characteristics

Abstract

Red List status of species should reflect species extinction risk. Because data are limited and species response has a time lag, species may be threatened by extinction even if they are not Red‐Listed. The ability to predict species risk of extinction from ecological characteristics holds promises for proactively targeting conservation measures to species at high risk. In 2005, the risk of extinction from ecological characteristics was predicted for 81 species of Finnish butterflies. Now, after 15 years and two additional national Red List assessments, these predictions are verified. Species with a higher risk of extinction according to the original ecological extinction risk rank (EERR) have indeed deteriorated further as judged by their Red List status, whereas species with a smaller risk of extinction according to EERR retained their Red List status or became more viable. The analysis confirms that predicting the risk of extinction based on ecological characteristics works in practice, and such a complementary approach to Red Listing could help us to advance conservation biology from the crisis discipline toward prognostic conservation practice.