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dc.contributor.authorBiancolini, Dino
dc.contributor.authorBaisero, Daniele
dc.contributor.authorFalaschi, Mattia
dc.contributor.authorBellard, Céline
dc.contributor.authorPacifici, Michela
dc.contributor.authorBlackburn, Tim
dc.contributor.authorFicetola, Gentile Francesco
dc.contributor.authorRondinini, Carlo
dc.date.accessioned2019-01-09T21:42:36Z
dc.date.available2019-01-09T21:42:36Z
dc.date.issued2018
dc.identifier.citationBiancolini, D., Baisero, D., Falaschi, M., Bellard, C., Pacifici, M., Blackburn, T., Ficetola, G. F. and Rondinini, C. (2018). Global risk of invasion by terrestrial vertebrates under contrasting SSP scenarios. 5th European Congress of Conservation Biology. doi: 10.17011/conference/eccb2018/107800
dc.identifier.urihttps://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/62147
dc.description.abstractThe introduction of alien species is among the main causes of biodiversity decline in the Anthropocene. We generated predictions of how climate and land-use change may modulate invasions by exotic species in the coming decades. We used the InSiGHTS modelling framework, which projects global species distributions through bioclimatic envelopes and habitat suitability models (HSMs), to predict the introduction and invasion risk of 333 allochthonous mammals and amphibians in three scenarios of global change: Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 - Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1; RCP 6.0 – SSP 3; and RCP 8.5 – SSP 5. The bioclimatic envelopes were developed using biomod2 with specific settings for alien species, mediated bioclimatic layers from 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global circulation models and alien species distributions from recent databases. The HSMs were based on the Land-Use Harmonization dataset (LUH2). We defined the invasion risk as the species InSiGHTS Index, the mean proportion of suitable habitat for introduced species in each 0.5 degree cell, inside the exotic range plus the area reachable through natural species dispersal, and the introduction risk as the InSiGHTS Index outside the native range. Global invasion risk by terrestrial vertebrates is predicted to increase in all the scenarios. Invasion hotsposts were located in every continent except Antarctica and noticeably overlapped with biodiversity hotspots. The global introduction risk of mammals was positively correlated with climate change mitigation, with higher risk under RCP 2.6 – SSP 1 than in the other scenarios, and decreasing risk under RCP 8.5 – SSP 5 particularly at higher latitudes. For amphibians, global introduction risk increased at higher latitudes and decreased at lower latitudes in all the scenarios. Our prediction quantifies how mammals and amphibian invasion front will move in response to different global change scenarios, providing crucial information to prevent or mitigate their possible impact on biodiversity worldwide.
dc.format.mimetypetext/html
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherOpen Science Centre, University of Jyväskylä
dc.relation.urihttps://peerageofscience.org/conference/eccb2018/107800/
dc.rightsCC BY 4.0
dc.titleGlobal risk of invasion by terrestrial vertebrates under contrasting SSP scenarios
dc.typeArticle
dc.type.urihttp://purl.org/eprint/type/ConferenceItem
dc.identifier.doi10.17011/conference/eccb2018/107800
dc.type.coarconference paper not in proceedings
dc.description.reviewstatuspeerReviewed
dc.type.versionpublishedVersion
dc.rights.copyright© the Authors, 2018
dc.rights.accesslevelopenAccess
dc.type.publicationconferenceObject
dc.relation.conferenceECCB2018: 5th European Congress of Conservation Biology. 12th - 15th of June 2018, Jyväskylä, Finland
dc.format.contentfulltext
dc.rights.urlhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/


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  • ECCB 2018 [712]
    5th European Congress of Conservation Biology. 12th - 15th of June 2018, Jyväskylä, Finland

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