Projecting impacts of global land-use scenarios on biodiversity change across scales and species groups.
Martins, I. S., Rosa, I. M. D. and Pereira, H. M. (2018). Projecting impacts of global land-use scenarios on biodiversity change across scales and species groups.. 5th European Congress of Conservation Biology. doi: 10.17011/conference/eccb2018/107994
© the Authors, 2018
Habitat destruction via land-use change is considered to be a primary driver for both biodiversity and ecosystems changes. As the pressure on land use is expected to increase in the future, there is an urgent need to develop the ability to assess in more detail the full range of responses of biodiversity to future land use change. Scenario analysis of alternative plausible futures is often used as a tool to explore and evaluate the extensive uncertainties associated with such possible future developments. Here, we use the countryside species-area relationship (cSAR) model to project future (2015-2100) changes in both alpha and gamma diversity of birds species and assess the dynamics between two bird functional species groups resulting from land use changes following three distinct scenarios of land use change and climate mitigation (i.e. the land use harmonization (LUH) database that represent alternative representative concentration and shared socio-economic pathways (RCP-SSP). We then compared future and current (1900-2015) rates of biodiversity loss. Across the different scenarios, we observe minimal losses to small increases in mean local species diversity (alpha diversity), although with significant declines of forest specialists, which are compensated by increases in generalist and open-habitat species. While global species loss (gamma diversity) seems to decrease around two percent, across the three scenarios, with significant losses of generalist and open-habitat species, rendering the tree scenarios similar when all bird species are taken together. Our results highlight the importance of assessing how different patterns of land-use affect biodiversity and how different choices will affect different components of biodiversity. We discuss how these considerations can help integrate human development and nature stewardship in a more sustainable way. ...
PublisherOpen Science Centre, University of Jyväskylä
ConferenceECCB2018: 5th European Congress of Conservation Biology. 12th - 15th of June 2018, Jyväskylä, Finland
MetadataShow full item record
- ECCB 2018 
Showing items with similar title or keywords.
Long-term impacts of increased timber harvests on ecosystem services and biodiversity : A scenario study based on national forest inventory data Blattert, Clemens; Lemm, Renato; Thürig, Esther; Stadelmann, Golo; Brändli, Urs-Beat; Temperli, Christian (Elsevier BV, 2020)The transition to a climate-neutral economy is expected to increase future timber demands and endanger the multifunctionality of forests. National scenario analyses are needed to determine long-term forest management impacts ...
Global-scale assessment of forest management impacts on biodiversity patterns Kusumoto, Buntarou; Aakala, Tuomas; Kuuluvainen, Timo; Shiono, Takayuki; Kubota, Yasuhiro (Open Science Centre, University of Jyväskylä, 2018)Integrating biodiversity conservation into forest management has been highlighted as one of the means for halting and reversing the recent biodiversity loss. This integration requires that we understand the mechanistic ...
Biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe and Central Asia – status, trends and future scenarios Visconti, Piero (Open Science Centre, University of Jyväskylä, 2018)The Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), a science-policy platform administered by the United Nations Environment Programme, at its third plenary in January 2015, in Bonn, requested ...
Global risk of invasion by terrestrial vertebrates under contrasting SSP scenarios Biancolini, Dino; Baisero, Daniele; Falaschi, Mattia; Bellard, Céline; Pacifici, Michela; Blackburn, Tim; Ficetola, Gentile Francesco; Rondinini, Carlo (Open Science Centre, University of Jyväskylä, 2018)The introduction of alien species is among the main causes of biodiversity decline in the Anthropocene. We generated predictions of how climate and land-use change may modulate invasions by exotic species in the coming ...
Scenario-based modelling of local land-use policy choices to achieve No Net Loss of wetland functions in the face of cumulative impacts Vaissière, Anne-Charlotte; Bierry, Adeline; Quétier, Fabien (Open Science Centre, University of Jyväskylä, 2018)Going beyond project by project approaches to biodiversity offsetting is challenging and local governments are struggling to find ways to achieve the no net loss (NNL) goal at the landscape level. In the Grenoble area ...