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dc.contributor.authorJunttila, Juha-Pekka
dc.contributor.authorVataja, Juuso
dc.date.accessioned2018-12-17T13:02:03Z
dc.date.issued2018fi
dc.identifier.citationJunttila, J.-P., & Vataja, J. (2018). Economic policy uncertainty effects for forecasting future real economic activity. <em>Economic Systems</em>, 42 (4), 569-583. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2018.03.002">doi:10.1016/j.ecosys.2018.03.002</a>fi
dc.identifier.otherTUTKAID_79131
dc.identifier.urihttps://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/60633
dc.description.abstractRecently introduced measures for Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) included in the data from 1997 - 2016 have a role in forecasting out-of-sample values for the future real economic activity for both the euro area and the UK economies. The inclusion of EPU measures, either for the US, the UK or for overall European economies, improves the forecasting ability of models based on standard financial market information, especially for the period before the 2008 global crisis. However, during and after the crisis period, the slope of the yield curve and excess stock market returns improves the out-of-sample forecast performance the most compared to an AR-benchmark model. Hence, the EPU information is important in times of normal business cycles, but it might contain similar information components to the financial market return variables, during turbulent crisis periods in the financial markets and in the real economy.fi
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherElsevier B.V.
dc.relation.ispartofseriesEconomic Systems
dc.rightsCC BY-NC-ND 4.0
dc.subject.othertaloudelliset ennusteetfi
dc.subject.othertalousindikaattoritfi
dc.subject.otherrahoitusmarkkinatfi
dc.subject.otheraikasarjatfi
dc.subject.otherepävarmuusfi
dc.subject.otherfinancial marketsfi
dc.subject.otherleading indicatorsfi
dc.subject.othermacroeconomic forecastingfi
dc.subject.othertime seriesfi
dc.subject.otheruncertaintyfi
dc.titleEconomic policy uncertainty effects for forecasting future real economic activityfi
dc.typearticle
dc.identifier.urnURN:NBN:fi:jyu-201812125083
dc.contributor.laitosKauppakorkeakoulufi
dc.contributor.laitosSchool of Business and Economicsen
dc.contributor.oppiaineBasic or discovery scholarship
dc.contributor.oppiaineTaloustiede
dc.date.embargo2021-01-01
dc.type.urihttp://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle
dc.date.updated2018-12-12T13:15:18Z
dc.description.reviewstatuspeerReviewed
dc.format.pagerange569-583
dc.relation.issn0939-3625
dc.relation.numberinseries4
dc.relation.volume42
dc.type.versionacceptedVersion
dc.rights.copyright© 2018 Elsevier B.V.
dc.rights.accesslevelopenAccessfi
dc.format.contentfulltext
dc.rights.urlhttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.relation.doi10.1016/j.ecosys.2018.03.002


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Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as CC BY-NC-ND 4.0