The Association of Ambient Temperature and Violent Crime
Tiihonen, J., Halonen, P., Tiihonen, L., Kautiainen, H., Storvik, M., & Callaway, J. (2017). The Association of Ambient Temperature and Violent Crime. Scientific Reports, 7, Article 6543. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-06720-z
Julkaistu sarjassa
Scientific ReportsTekijät
Päivämäärä
2017Tekijänoikeudet
© the Authors, 2017. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
It is controversial if global warming will result into increased crime and conflict rate, and no causal
neurobiological mechanisms have been proposed for the putative association between ambient
temperature and aggressive behavior. This study shows that during 1996–2013, ambient temperature
explained 10% of variance in the violent crime rate in Finland, corresponding to a 1.7% increase/degree
centigrade. Ambient temperature also correlated with a one month delay in circannual changes in
peripheral serotonin transporter density among both offenders and healthy control subjects, which
itself correlated strongly with the monthly violent crime rate. This suggests that rise in temperature
modulates serotonergic transmission which may increase impulsivity and general human activity level,
resulting into increase in social interaction and risk of violent incidents. Together, these results suggest
that the effect of ambient temperature on occurrence of violent crime is partly mediated through the
serotonergic system, and that a 2°C increase in average temperatures would increase violent crime
rates by more than 3% in non-tropical and non-subtropical areas, if other contributing factors remained
constant.
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Nature Publishing GroupISSN Hae Julkaisufoorumista
2045-2322Asiasanat
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https://converis.jyu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/27160930
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