Interactive decision support and trade-off analysis for sustainable forest landscape planning under deep uncertainty

Abstract

Sustainable environmental management often involves long-term time horizons, multiple conflicting objectives, and by nature, is affected by different sources of uncertainty. Many sources of uncertainty, such as climate change or government policies, cannot be addressed using probabilistic models, and, therefore, they can be seen to contain deep uncertainty. In this setting, the variety of possible future states is represented as a set of scenarios lacking any information about the likelihood of occurring. Integrating deep uncertainty into multiobjective decision support increases complexity, calling for the elaboration of appropriate methods and tools. This paper proposes a novel interactive multi-scenario multiobjective approach to support decision-making and trade-off analysis in sustainable forest landscape planning under multiple sources of uncertainty. It includes new preference simulation models aimed at reducing the decision-maker's cognitive load and supporting the preference elicitation process. The proposed approach is applied in a case study of long-term forest landscape planning with four sustainability objectives in twelve scenarios and a forestry expert as the decision-maker. The approach is demonstrated to be efficient in exploring trade-offs in different scenarios, helping the expert gain deep insights into the problem, understand the consequences of alternative strategies, and find the most preferred robust strategy.