Shared socioeconomic pathways for climate change research in Finland : co-developing extended SSP narratives for agriculture
Lehtonen, H. S., Aakkula, J., Fronzek, S., Helin, J., Hildén, M., Huttunen, S., Kaljonen, M., Niemi, J., Palosuo, T., Pirttioja, N., Rikkonen, P., Varho, V., & Carter, T. R. (2021). Shared socioeconomic pathways for climate change research in Finland : co-developing extended SSP narratives for agriculture. Regional Environmental Change, 21, Article 7. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01734-2
Published inRegional Environmental Change
© The Author(s) 2020
Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), developed at global scale, comprise narrative descriptions and quantifications of future world developments that are intended for climate change scenario analysis. However, their extension to national and regional scales can be challenging. Here, we present SSP narratives co-developed with stakeholders for the agriculture and food sector in Finland. These are derived from intensive discussions at a workshop attended by approximately 39 participants offering a range of sectoral perspectives. Using general background descriptions of the SSPs for Europe, facilitated discussions were held in parallel for each of four SSPs reflecting very different contexts for the development of the sector up to 2050 and beyond. Discussions focused on five themes from the perspectives of consumers, producers and policy-makers, included a joint final session and allowed for post-workshop feedback. Results reflect careful sector-based, national-level interpretations of the global SSPs from which we have constructed consensus narratives. Our results also show important critical remarks and minority viewpoints. Interesting features of the Finnish narratives compared to the global SSP narratives include greater emphasis on environmental quality; significant land abandonment in SSPs with reduced livestock production and increased plant-based diets; continued need for some farm subsidies across all SSPs and opportunities for diversifying domestic production under scenarios of restricted trade. Our results can contribute to the development of more detailed national long-term scenarios for food and agriculture that are both relevant for local stakeholders and researchers as well as being consistent with global scenarios being applied internationally. ...
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Additional information about fundingThis work was part of the PLUMES (Pathways linking uncertainties in model projections of climate and its effects) project (Academy of Finland, decisions 277276 and 292836). Additional support was obtained from the European Commission (grant agreement no. 603416), Joint Programming Initiative on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change (FACCE-JPI) MACSUR2 (Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security) Knowledge Hub, Academy of Finland (decisions 316215 and 330915) and Natural Resources Institute Finland BoostIA (Boosting Integrated Assessment modelling in Luke for sustainability analysis) project. Open Access funding provided by Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE). ...
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