Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4·4 million participants
NCD Risk Factor Collaboration. (2016). Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4·4 million participants. The Lancet, 387(10027), 1513-1530. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00618-8
Published in
The LancetAuthors
Date
2016Copyright
© NCD Risk Factor Collaboration. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY.
Background One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the agestandardised
adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how
likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth
and ageing, are aff ecting the number of adults with diabetes.
Methods We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of
its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence—defi ned as fasting
plasma glucose of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic
drugs—in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior
probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue.
Findings We used data from 751 studies including 4 372 000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for.
Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4·3% (95% credible interval 2·4–7·0) in 1980 to 9·0%
(7·2–11·1) in 2014 in men, and from 5·0% (2·9–7·9) to 7·9% (6·4–9·7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes
in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28·5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39·7% due
to population growth and ageing, and 31·8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes
prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed
by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised
diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing
of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in
Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both
sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia.
If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes
by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and
29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target.
Interpretation Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained
unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of
the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of
adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.
...
![showless](/themes/JYX2//images/showless.png)
![showmore](/themes/JYX2//images/showmore.png)
Publisher
The Lancet Publishing GroupISSN Search the Publication Forum
0140-6736Keywords
Publication in research information system
https://converis.jyu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/25642803
Metadata
Show full item recordCollections
- Liikuntatieteiden tiedekunta [3032]
License
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as © NCD Risk Factor Collaboration. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY.
Related items
Showing items with similar title or keywords.
-
Worldwide trends in blood pressure from 1975 to 2015 : a pooled analysis of 1479 population-based measurement studies with 19·1 million participants
NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (The Lancet Publishing Group, 2017)Background Raised blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated worldwide trends in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence ... -
Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure : a pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants
NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (Oxford University Press, 2018)Background: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) ... -
Worldwide trends in body-mass index, underweight, overweight, and obesity from 1975 to 2016 : a pooled analysis of 2416 population-based measurement studies in 128·9 million children, adolescents, and adults
NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC) (Elsevier, 2017)Background Underweight, overweight, and obesity in childhood and adolescence are associated with adverse health consequences throughout the life-course. Our aim was to estimate worldwide trends in mean body-mass index ... -
Worldwide trends in hypertension prevalence and progress in treatment and control from 1990 to 2019 : a pooled analysis of 1201 population-representative studies with 104 million participants
NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (Elsevier, 2021)Background Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, ... -
Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants
NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (Elsevier BV, 2020)Background Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which ...