Estimating the causal effect of timing on the reach of social media posts
Valkonen, L., Helske, J., & Karvanen, J. (2023). Estimating the causal effect of timing on the reach of social media posts. Statistical Methods and Applications, 32, 493-507. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10260-022-00664-z
Published inStatistical Methods and Applications
© The Author(s) 2022
Modern companies regularly use social media to communicate with their customers. In addition to the content, the reach of a social media post may depend on the season, the day of the week, and the time of the day. We consider optimizing the timing of Facebook posts by a large Finnish consumers’ cooperative using historical data on previous posts and their reach. The content and the timing of the posts reflect the marketing strategy of the cooperative. These choices affect the reach of a post via a dynamic process where the reactions of users make the post more visible to others. We describe the causal relations of the social media publishing in the form of a directed acyclic graph, use an identification algorithm to obtain a formula for the causal effect, and finally estimate the required conditional probabilities with Bayesian generalized additive models. As a result, we obtain estimates for the expected reach of a post for alternative timings.
PublisherSpringer Science and Business Media LLC
Publication in research information system
MetadataShow full item record
Related funder(s)Academy of Finland
Funding program(s)Academy Project, AoF; Research profiles, AoF
Additional information about fundingLauri Valkonen is grateful for the grant of The Finnish Cultural Foundation, Central Finland Regional Fund. Jouni Helske was supported by the Academy of Finland grants 331817 and 311877. This work belongs to the thematic research area “Decision analytics utilizing causal models and multiobjective optimization” (DEMO) supported by Academy of Finland (Grant Number 311877). Open Access funding provided by University of Jyväskylä (JYU). ...
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