A bark beetle infestation predictive model based on satellite data in the frame of decision support system TANABBO
Duriaciova, R., Munko, M., Barka, I., Koren, M., Resnerova, K., Holusa, J., Blazenec, M., Potterf, M., & Jakus, R. (2020). A bark beetle infestation predictive model based on satellite data in the frame of decision support system TANABBO. iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, 13(3), 215-223. https://doi.org/10.3832/ifor3271-013
Published iniForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry
© SISEF - The Italian Society of Silviculture and Forest Ecology 2020
The European spruce bark beetle Ips typographus L. causes significant economic losses in managed coniferous forests in Central and Northern Europe. New infestations either occur in previously undisturbed forest stands (i.e., spot initiation) or depend on proximity to previous years’ infestations (i.e., spot spreading). Early identification of newly infested trees over the forested landscape limits the effective control measures. Accurate forecasting of the spread of bark beetle infestation is crucial to plan efficient sanitation felling of infested trees and prevent further propagation of beetle-induced tree mortality. We created a predictive model of subsequent year spot initiation and spot spreading within the TANABBO decision support system. The algorithm combines open-access Landsat-based vegetation change time-series data, a digital terrain model, and forest stand characteristics. We validated predicted susceptibility to bark beetle attack (separately for spot initiation and spot spreading) against beetle infestations in managed forests in the Bohemian Forest in the Czech Republic (Central Europe) in yearly time steps from 2007 to 2010. The predictive models of susceptibility to bark beetle attack had a high degree of reliability (area under the ROC curve - AUC: 0.75-0.82). We conclude that spot initiation and spot spreading prediction modules included within the TANABBO model have the potential to help forest managers to plan sanitation felling in managed forests under pressure of bark beetle outbreak. ...
PublisherSocieta Italiana di Selvicoltura ed Ecologia Forestale (SISEF)
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Additional information about fundingThis work was supported by grants nos. 1/0300/19 and 1/0468/20 from the Grant Agency of Slovak Republic VEGA, the project of the Slovak Research and Development Agency under contracts APVV-15- 0413, APVV-15-0761, and the National Agency for Agricultural Research within the framework of project no. QJ1220317 administered by the Ministry of Agriculture of the Czech Republic and by the grant “EXTEMIT - K”, no. CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/15_003/0000433 financed by OP RDE. ...
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