Paris Agreement commitments and EU regulation of the LULUCF-sector - implications to forests in Finland and beyond

Abstract

The Paris Agreement sets a goal to limit the global average temperature increase to well-below 2°C above the pre-industrial level. This would require balance between GHG emissions and sinks within a few decades and even net negative emissions by the end of the century.

According to the Paris Agreement, the EU will reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 40% by 2030, and it has to be prepared for more ambitious targets following 2030. Following the EU Effort sharing Regulation, Finland must reduce GHG emissions from agriculture and other non-emission trading (ET) sectors by 39% from the 2005 levels by 2030. A fraction of the target can be achieved with credits from LULUCF sector if they are a net sink. Forests have been net sinks with carbon sequestration capacity that compensates 10% of the total emissions in Europe and 40% in Finland. In Europe, forest carbon sinks (2021-20130) are accounted towards a country specific reference level, which is derived on the basis of forest management and harvests during the period on 2000-2009. The reference levels set targets to the forest carbon sinks, which may also affect plans for bioeconomy investments in Finland and beyond. Since the EU agreement allows transfers of carbon sink credits within the EU countries, it creates a high demand to increase transparency and to reduce uncertainty of the national GHG inventories of the LULUCF sector.

Finland and Europe can reach forest carbon sink targets, by maintaining positive balance between forest growth and harvests, by reducing GHG emissions of peatlands, and by reducing deforestation and enhancing afforestation. Currently, peat soil of croplands and forests is the largest source of GHG emissions in the Finnish LULUCF sector. Soil management has large potential to mitigate climate change, but cost-efficient and sustainable management methods need to be developed, their impact verified and the methods must be applied by landowners before the sector’s mitigation potential will be realized. Mitigation of climate change by cost-efficient means of the LULUCF sector are essential for Finland’s capacity to reduce emissions.