Pathways to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals

Abstract

As we are closing in on the deadline set by the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) to achieve the protection of 17% of land and freshwater areas and 10% of marine areas by 2020 (i.e. Aichi Targets), and biodiversity decline continues unabated, conservationists are divided as to how much natural space should conserved to protect biodiversity. Some argue that if fully achieved, the Aichi Targets for protected area expansion and habitat restoration will suffice to avert further extinctions. On the other hand, there is a growing support for the ‘Half-Earth’ vision, which aims to secure at least half the planet for nature conservation. Some recent studies have shown that such goals may be achievable, provided that some ecosystems would be restored. However, these studies often ignore other societal goals, and the socioeconomic reality of economic growth and food security, both important drivers of biodiversity changes worldwide and generally at odds with biodiversity conservation. We determine which socioeconomic pathways and policies are required post-2020 to achieve goals for biodiversity conservation and ensure food security worldwide. We use optimization algorithms and targets for species conservation and food production under alternative socio-economic scenarios to 2030 to plan at the same time for both biodiversity and food security. We integrated both Half-Earth and Aichi targets 11 and 12 with different scenarios aiming to reduce habitat loss by increasing agricultural efficiency, changing diets and reducing human population growth. We highlight the key socio-economic changes needed for achieving future visions for biodiversity conservation to be feasible and the areas of the world where most protection and restoration are needed to achieve these visions.