Determining the appropriate timing of the next forest inventory : incorporating forest owner risk preferences and the uncertainty of forest data quality

Abstract

Key message

The timing to conduct new forest inventories should be based on the requirements of the decision maker. Importance should be placed on the objectives of the decision maker and his/her risk preferences related to those objectives.

Context

The appropriate use of pertinent and available information is paramount in any decision-making process. Within forestry, a new forest inventory is typically conducted prior to creating a forest management plan. The acquisition of new forest inventory data is justified by the simple statement of “good decisions require good data.”

Aims

By integrating potential risk preferences, we examine the specific needs to collect new forest information.

Methods

Through a two-stage stochastic programming with recourse model, we evaluate the specific timing to conduct a holding level forest inventory. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to integrate both inventory and growth model errors, resulting in a large number of potential scenarios process to be used as data for the stochastic program. To allow for recourse, an algorithm to sort the simulations to represent possible updated forest inventories, using the same data was developed.

Results

Risk neutral decision makers should delay obtaining new forest information when compared to risk averse decision makers.

Conclusion

New inventory data may only need to be collected rather infrequently; however, the exact timing depends on the forest owner’s objectives and risk preferences.