Studies on the determinants of migration and the spatial concentration of labour

Abstract

This thesis consists of five empirical studies which seek to understand the processes behind interregional migration decisions and the spatial concentration of labour. The empirical studies are preceded by an introductory chapter that, among other topics, discusses spatial concentration in Finland between 1980 and 2000, and surveys prior evidence on the determinants of migration. The thesis mainly utilises Finnish longitudinal population census data from 1993?1996. A variety of advanced microeconometric methods are used in the modelling of the migration phenomenon to ensure robustness and the reliability of the results. The results of the thesis imply that person-specific productivity has hardly any impact on migration, apart from females living in peripheral regions: women with the poorest performance are found to move when their performance is compared with that of a reference group based on characteristics such as age, education and experience. However, the results also suggest that the peripheral regions tend to lose a significant part of their highly educated labour to growth-centre regions and urban municipalities, which offer better job opportunities and a broader range of self-improvement and leisure activities etc. Thus, the migratory behaviour of highly educated individuals has lead to a higher concentration of human capital in Finland. The thesis also studies the impact of expected performance after the migration decision, rather than simply the individual?s performance before the decision to migrate. The empirical findings on individuals living in the peripheral regions show that the decision to migrate is affected by income expectations, as the human capital theory predicts. However, the means by which migration flows can be re-targeted are limited by the fact that the costs of income policy interventions can be very high. In addition, the thesis finds that recently developed econometric models, which control for unobserved factors, can provide a more realistic description of migration behaviour than the standard models.

Viime vuosikymmeninä syrjäisemmät seudut ovat menettäneet osan tuottavasta työvoimastaan, kun nuori ja ammattitaitoinen väestö on muuttanut vetovoimaisille keskusalueille. Mika Haapasen väitöstutkimuksen mukaan väestön keskittymisellä on sekä myönteisiä että kielteisiä vaikutuksia. - Väestön keskittyminen voi parantaa alueen talouden toimintaa. Esimerkiksi työvoiman siirtyminen matalan tuottavuuden alueilta korkean tuottavuuden alueille voi synnyttää talouskasvua. Toisaalta hyvin epätasapainoinen muuttoliike voi heikentää alueiden toiminta- ja kilpailukykyä. Esimerkiksi työikäisen väestön voimakas poismuutto vähentää muuttotappioalueiden kuntien taloudellisia toimintamahdollisuuksia, koska työelämän ulkopuolella olevien ihmisten määrä suhteessa veronmaksajiin kasvaa, Haapanen päättelee.