A multigroup random-intercept cross-lagged panel model for Finnish secondary school students in frame of situated expectancy-value theory

The aim of this study is to examine both within-person and between-person associations of academic self-concept and task values in literacy and mathematics to identify the most promising motivational construct to prevent motivational decline during school transitions. The sample included 3636 students (average age at the start: 15.73 years, SD: 0.32 years) followed up three times from lower secondary school (T1) to the third year (T3) of upper secondary education, either in vocational or academic tracks. Multi-group random intercept cross-lagged panel models detected several spillover (cross-lagged) effects between self-concept and task values in mathematics but not in literacy. There were also marginal but significant differences between students from different educational tracks in both subjects. Overall, utility value and academic self-concept in mathematics were found to be the most promising motivational constructs in changing motivational beliefs, thus presenting important starting points in motivational interventions.