Developmental profiles of arithmetic fluency skills from grades 1 to 9 and their early identification

The aim of the present study was to examine the kinds of developmental profiles of arithmetic fluency skills that can be identified across Grades 1–9 (ages 7–16) in a large Finnish sample (n = 2,518). The study also examined whether membership in the developmental profiles could be predicted using a comprehensive set of kindergarten-age factors, including information on cognitive skills; motivational, parental, and home environment factors; and gender. Four profiles of arithmetic fluency skills development were identified using a factor mixture model: persistent arithmetic difficulties (12.23%), precocious onset (50.24%), delayed onset (36.96%), and precocious onset with a Grade 7 drop (.06%). The Cholesky models predicting membership in the three largest profiles suggested that overall, the strongest kindergarten-age predictors were cognitive skills (especially counting, number concepts, spatial relations, rapid automatized naming [RAN], phonological awareness, and letter knowledge), but motivational, parental, and home environment factors were also significant. Membership in the profile with precocious onset was predicted by most of the kindergarten-age measures, suggesting that the strengths in early skills, as well as motivational, parental, and home environment factors, are reflected in the advanced start in arithmetic development at school. The profiles with delayed onset and persistent difficulties were similar in most kindergarten-age measures but differed in task avoidance and four cognitive skills (letter knowledge, counting, number concepts, and RAN), suggesting that these factors predict differential development over the longer term.