Learning difficulties as predictors for dropping out of upper secondary education

Dropping out of education is connected to many negative outcomes on individual and societal level. The purpose of this study was to investigate to what extent learning difficulties measured in the 9th grade predict dropping out of upper secondary education and whether that connection is moderated by family´s socio-economic background. The data used in this study is from the First Steps follow-up study (Lerkkanen et al. 2006–2016) and its extension, the School Path: From First Steps to Secondary and Higher Education study (Vasalampi and Aunola 2016–2020). Participants´ (n=1476) mathematical skills and reading skills were tested in the ninth grade in the spring 2016. In 2019 the information about graduation of upper secondary education was collected from the school registers. The data was analysed through logistic regression analysis. This longitudinal study showed that learning difficulties in reading and mathematics predict dropping out of upper secondary education. Results showed that reading comprehension did predicted dropping out of upper secondary education, but technical reading skills were not connected to dropping out. Difficulties in arithmetic skills was found to be the strongest predictor of dropping out as the connection between arithmetic skills and dropping out of education remained significant after including socioeconomic background in the analysis. Results found in this study offer valuable information for education practitioners as well as for improving education systems towards prevention of upper secondary school dropouts.