Predicting the future for endangered birds

Abstract

Predicting the future for endangered birds

Climate and habitat explain to a large extent the distribution and abundance of species but nowadays climate change and increasing pressure on land use are causing notable declines in various species populations, and even extinctions [1]. From the cost-efficient conservation management point-of-view it is important to know which (currently common) species are in risk to become endangered in the future. To prevent species from becoming endangered we should also understand which factors are causing population declines.

Here we use presence-absence data on 265 bird species to model their future breeding distribution areas. We use species which were observed in the common bird monitoring scheme censuses in Finland, Sweden and Norway during 1975-2015. In the analysis we use the groundbreaking concept of Hierarchical Modelling of Species Communities to build an ecological model that explains species occurrence [2]. The model is unique in that it takes into account not only climate and habitat but also species traits such as migratory behavior, taxonomic relatedness and the co-occurrence of other species. By adding various scenarios of climate change (increasing temperature) into the model, we will be able to make predictions of future species occurrence.

The results will help to understand how climate change will affect various species, and how we should prepare for those changes. In addition we will explain how the results can be applied in the national red listing as researchers are currently compiling an updated Red List of Finnish bird species. For the first time the Finnish evaluation includes use of criterion E, which requires an extensive quantitative analysis to estimate the extinction probability of a taxon based on known life history, habitat requirements, threats and any specified management options [3].

References:

[1] Howard, C., Stephens, P. A., Pearce-Higgins, J. W., Gregory, R. D. & Willis, S. G. 2015: The drivers of avian abundances: patterns in the relative importance of climate and land use. Global Ecology and Biogeography 24: 1249-1260.

[2] Ovaskainen, O., Tikhonov, G., Norberg, A., Guillaume Blanchet, F., Duan, L., Dunson, D., Roslin, T. & Abrego, N. 2017: How to make more out of community data? A conceptual framework and its implementation as models and software. Ecol.Lett. 20: 561-576.

[3] Mannerkoski, I. & Ryttäri, T. 2007: Eliölajien uhanalaisuuden arviointi- Maailman luonnonsuojeluliiton (IUCN) ohjeet. Ympäristöopas.