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Real options analysis as a tool for start-up company investment valuation

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Authors
Leskisenoja, Olli
Date
2015
Discipline
LaskentatoimiAccounting

 
Pro Gradu -tutkielman tavoitteena oli tutkia Real Option Analysis -metodin sopivuutta start-up yhtiön investoinnin arvonmääritykseen. Jotta tutkimuskysymykseen saatiin vastaus, tuli myös case-yhtiön liiketoimintasuunnitelma selvittää ja edelleen mitkä ovat liiketoiminnan potentiaaliset rahavirrat, joihin arvonmääritys perustuu. Tutkimusmenetelmä oli kvantitatiivinen case-tutkimus ja tutkimusmetodi oli konstruktiivinen ja deskriptiivinen. Tutkimuksessa konstruoitiin työkalu ja arvonmääritys case-yrityksen suunnitellulle investoinnille. Toisaalta tutkimuksessa kuvailtiin arvonmääritystä yleisesti sekä Real Options Analysis -metodia. Tutkimuksen pohjaksi tutustuttiin start-up yhtiöihin, arvonmääritykseen ja Real Options – metodiin yleisesti. Arvonmäärityksen teoria-osuudessa tutustuttiin lyhyesti muihin arvonmääritysmetodeihin, eritoten Net Present Value -metodiin. Teoria osuuden jälkeen rakennettiin haastattelujen ja yhteisen työnteon avulla työkalu investoinnin arvonmääritykseen. Lopulta kasvuoptiolle ja edelleen koko investoinnille tehtiin arvonmääritys, joka luovutettiin case-yhtiön käyttöön. Ensimmäisen vaiheen investointi oli verkkokauppa, jolla testattiin case-yhtiön brändin toimivuutta ja tuotteiden menekkiä. Ensimmäisen vaiheen investointiin liitettiin kasvu-optio: mikäli kauppa käy, tullaan palvelua edelleen kehittämään markkinapaikaksi, joka sisältää myös aluksi tehdyn verkkokaupan. Yritys hyväksyi arvonmäärityksen ja täten validoi tutkimuksen konstruktion. Arvonmääritys ja sen perustaksi tehty syvällinen analyysi kuitenkin osoittivat investoinnin olevan kohtuullisen kannattamaton vaikka kasvulukemat hyvässä tapauksessa asetettiin korkeaksi. Tästä syystä yritys päätti olla toteuttamatta investointia. ...
 
The aim of this Master’s Thesis was to research whether the Real Options Analysis method works as a tool for start-up company investment valuation. In order to answer the main research question the business plan of the case company was outlined. This is a quantitative single-case research and the research method is both constructive and descriptive. A tool for the investment valuation was constructed and the valuation process, the business plan itself and the Real Options Analysis was described. For background, start-up companies, investment valuation and the Real Options Analysis were researched. In the investment valuation section of the research the basic Net Present Value –method is illustrated. Other investment valuation methods are described shortly, too. After theory the tool for the investment valuation was constructed. Finally, the option to expand and the investment as a whole was given a valuation. The valuation was turned over to the case company. The first-phase investment was a webstore that tested the traction of the company’s brand and the demand for its merchandize. An expansion option – a real option – was attached to the investment: if the revenues are satisfactory, a further investment will be made turning the webstore into a market place. The case company accepted the investment valuation and thus validated the construction of the case study. The valuation and the in-depth analysis made for the investment highlighted that the investment wasn’t sufficiently profitable even though the potential good outcome was rather optimistic and the company decided not to initiate the investment plan. ...
 
Keywords
Real Options Analysis Start-up company investment valuation net present value startup-yritykset investoinnit
URI

http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:jyu-201602101535

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